Therefore, Y/A can be very misleading in this situation. ? Drew Brees held onto his top spot for the third week in a row. Peyton Manning reclaimed second place (barely) from Rivers. ? Romo and Orton continued to fall. After Week 7, these two ranked 3rd and 9th. They now sit in 8th (Romo) and 13th (Orton). ? Jay Cutler and Jake Delhomme each dropped 4 spots. ? Brett Favre has moved from 15th to 6th since Week 7. ? Matthew Stafford and Brady Quinn still sit in the nether regions of the rankings. However,Cheap Matt Cassel Jersey, they were 4th and 5th in the single week ranking after their impersonations of MarinoO’Brien circa 1986. Rank Player Index 1 Eli Manning 1.16 2 Drew Brees 1.15 3 Peyton Manning 1.10 4 Philip Rivers 1.07 5 Brett Favre 1.02 6 Matt Schaub 0.97 7 Matt Ryan 0.95 8 Tom Brady 0.94 9 Aaron Rodgers 0.94 10 Carson Palmer 0.93 The Metric With the N.F.L. stretch run approaching, I think it’s appropriate to start considering some tweaks and improvements for version 2.0 of my passer ratings – hopefully launching sometime in 2010. The calculation for the index is thirddown passing yards divided by yards needed for a first down. My goal is to find a way to incorporate situational statistics – more specifically, thirddown success – into the ratings. However, a factor that will accurately tease out thirddown success could prove challenging. Football is a moving parts game, and a quarterback’s job on third down (or any down) differs depending on the game situation. Passer Rating Through Week 11 (Minimum 140 Attempts) Rodgers, Brady, Peyton Manning, and all other quarterbacks, have the same goal on third down – to get enough yards for a first down. Rodgers has put himself in situations where,Cheap Anthony Gonzalez Jersey, on average, he needs almost three more yards than Manning or Brady. The great quarterbacks seem to make their living on third down. Well, I think I have the answer. This got me back to thinking about Rodgers’s sack totals. Is Rodgers so efficient on third down because he’s a clutch player? Or, is it more simply that, because of his sack totals, he finds himself in a disproportionate number of thirdandlongs? This led me to a new index to measure thirddown success among quarterbacks. It’s pretty simple. In the coming weeks, I hope to include this index – along with the variables already included in my ratings – in a model to see if a superior rating can be generated. This Week’s Rankings The Challenge ? He has a traditional quarterback rating of 102.6, fourth in the N.F.L. But he ranks 12th in my ratings because of his habit of taking sacks,Cheap Laurence Maroney Jersey, a metric that is included in my ratings, but not the traditional one. ? On first and second down, Rodgers has a Yards Per Attempt (Y/A) — after adjusting for sacks — of 6.0. On third down his Y/A jumps to 8.1. That thirddown figure ranks second only to Eli Manning’s. ? Among the top 10, only Palmer (Cincinnati) and Schaub (Houston) are not in the top 10 in points scored. ? Six of the eight division leaders are in the top 10 in this metric. ? No team with a losing record is in the top 10. Houston and Atlanta are both 55. Rank Player Rating 1 Kurt Warner 9.1 2 Eli Manning 6.7 3 Peyton Manning 6.4 4 Matthew Stafford 6.4 5 Brady Quinn 6.3 6 Brett Favre 5.6 7 Tom Brady 4.9 8 Matt Hasselbeck 4.3 9 Joe Flacco 3.6 10 Matt Cassel 3.4 11 Philip Rivers 3.1 12 Ben Roethlisberger 3.0 13 Aaron Rodgers 2.5 14 Ryan Fitzpatrick 2.2 15 David Garrard 1.3 16 Chad Henne 1.1 17 Donovan McNabb 1.0 18 Matt Schaub 1.0 19 Alex Smith 0.9 20 Matt Ryan 0.6 21 Drew Brees 0.2 22 Jason Campbell 0.1 23 Tony Romo 0.8 24 Bruce Gradkowski 1.6 25 Vince Young 1.6 26 Carson Palmer 2.0 27 Kyle Orton 2.6 28 Marc Bulger 5.1 29 Jay Cutler 5.6 30 Matt Leinart 7.2 31 Jake Delhomme 7.6 32 Mark Sanchez 9.4 33 Josh Freeman 11.3 (Minimum 10 Attempts) Aaron Rodgers has proved a perfect guinea pig for my endeavor. The metric correlates well with points scored and winning: So, if Tom Brady faces a 3rdand5 and he completes a 10yard pass, his index for that play is 2 (10/5). If Rodgers completes a 10yard pass on 3rdand10, his index is 1 (10/10). The methodology is Below, I explain the challenge and introduce a metric that I will probably incorporate into version 2.0. Luis DeLoureiro is building, among other statistical pursuits, at On an average third down, the Packers need 8.4 yards to get a first down. Only the Chiefs are worse at 8.6. The Colts and Patriots (both 5.6) are the two best teams in this metric. What gives? Why does Aaron Rodgers have such disparate numbers when looking at different downs? Below are the top 10 player in this metric (See ): New Rating Traditional Rating 1 Drew Brees 4.6 0 105.8 2 2 Peyton Manning 3.9 1 102.7 3 3 Philip Rivers 3.8 (1) 98.7 7 4 Tom Brady 3.6 1 100.4 5 5 Matt Schaub 3.3 (1) 98.9 6 6 Brett Favre 2.9 1 112.1 1 7 Eli Manning 2.7 1 92.2 11 8 Tony Romo 2.6 (2) 91.5 12 9 Ben Roethlisberger 1.7 0 98.6 8 10 Donovan McNabb 1.2 1 95.9 9 11 Kurt Warner 1.2 1 94.4 10 12 Aaron Rodgers 1.1 1 102.6 4 13 Kyle Orton 1.0 (3) 87.8 14 14 Joe Flacco 0.8 0 89.1 13 15 Matt Ryan 0.2 1 80.0 20 16 Carson Palmer 0.2 (1) 87.2 15 17 David Garrard 0.2 0 83.9 17 18 Jason Campbell 1.4 1 86.1 16 19 Chad Henne 1.6 1 77.7 23 20 Alex Smith 1.9 N/A 81.5 19 21 Matt Hasselbeck 2.0 2 82.3 18 22 Jay Cutler 2.1 (4) 74.5 24 23 Marc Bulger 3.0 (1) 70.7 26 24 Mark Sanchez 3.2 0 61.1 31 25 Jake Delhomme 3.2 (4) 66.0 29 26 Matthew Stafford 3.4 3 66.9 28 27 Matt Cassel 3.9 0 77.9 22 28 Kerry Collins 3.9 (3) 62.0 30 29 Shaun Hill 4.3 (3) 79.6 21 30 Trent Edwards 4.5 (2) 74.1 25 31 Brady Quinn 5.4 N/A 70.4 27 32 JaMarcus Russell 7.3 (2) 47.7 32 33 Derek Anderson 8.3 (2) 36.2 33 The author introduces： TE Cheap Albert Haynesworth Jersey on sale 061 365d JERSEYS is a privately owned sports goods company with a history of nearly 4 years.We have the professional factory behind us manufacturing all sports jerseys.china nfl jerseys Read More